June 16, 2026 | Burma Independent Voice
The World Bank announced on Tuesday that inflation in civil war-torn Myanmar has soared to nearly 25 percent, driven by the cascading economic fallout of the Middle East conflict.
Citing deteriorating external economic conditions, the global lender also downgraded Myanmar’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, which began in April. Myanmar has been engulfed in civil war since the 2021 military coup. Over the past five years, persistent instability has plunged a vast segment of the country’s 50-million-strong population back into deep poverty.
Official data indicates that Myanmar relies on imports for up to 90 percent of its fuel needs. Consequently, the country has been severely impacted by the blockade of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which began with the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28.
According to the World Bank’s semi-annual Myanmar Economic Monitor, inflation hit a record high of 24.6 percent this past April. In light of these challenges, the bank lowered its economic growth projection for the 2026–2027 fiscal year to 2 percent, down from an earlier estimate of 3 percent.
The World Bank noted that Myanmar’s economy “remains paralyzed at a low baseline,” warning that fuel price shocks have amplified long-standing, structural infrastructure vulnerabilities, leaving the country’s economic outlook increasingly fragile.
“Renewed price pressures driven by fuel shocks mean a decline in purchasing power for households that are already struggling with high poverty rates and living on the margins,” Kimo Mansaray, a senior economist at the World Bank, told reporters.
In the 12-month period ending this past March, Myanmar’s inflation rate stood at 21.1 percent. The report further highlighted that the poverty rate reached 29.9 percent in 2025, remaining exponentially higher than pre-2021 levels.
“We are barely scraping by just to buy food, so we can no longer afford to send our children to school. I have three school-aged children at home,” a 28-year-old father from Yangon shared, speaking on the condition of anonymity for security reasons. Similarly, a 45-year-old female shopkeeper in Yangon expressed deep despair over the skyrocketing cost of living, which has devastated both her business and household stability. “Income and expenses do not balance. Every day is an uphill battle to survive. Prices only go up, they never come down. No matter how much you earn now, it is never enough,” she said anonymously.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hit Asia the hardest, as approximately 80 percent of the crude oil passing through the waterway is destined for Asian markets.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Monday that shipping vessels have begun transiting the waterway again after Washington and Tehran reached an agreement to end the war, promising that the strait will be “completely and totally reopened” this coming Friday. However, economic analysts warn that reviving economies decimated by the conflict will take a considerable amount of time.
